#81

On his blog I, Cringely, technology journalist Mark Stephens maintains that in the near future (he guesses around the year 2015) television will be well on its way to morphing from a broadcast model to internet provided service. Network TV as we have known it will go belly up, like the city newspaper, and instead of being an American household mainstay it will become a museum-worthy artifact, something we gather in a special building to admire once in a while, like a pteradactyl egg fossil or a mosquito trapped in amber.

As the popular delivery models of media change, so will content. Web TV has been a reality for several years, and "midtail" content, or semiproduced/user generated videos, are a staple of the savvy viewer who would rather be glued to online streaming video than at the mercy of some old fashioned technology and stuffy TV executives (I thought TiVo largely did away with such enslavement, but anyway....). Next New Networks, the leading producer of such midtails, includes programming from a variety of sources e.g. Channel Frederator, Barely Political, ThreadBanger, and others.

Changes in the way television service is delivered and in viewing habits are gaining momentum. According to Advertising Age, midtail content is the only online programming that "scores sizable audiences" and thus revenue. It's not surprising then, that Goldman Sachs is one of Next New Networks major investors. (At least some things are still predictable.)

Consumers are pretty predictable too. If it's bigger and better they pretty much have to have it. Large screen LCD TVs are now everywhere. It's ironic though, that fewer than 5 percent of the HD TVs sold in the US last year are capable of bypassing cable and satellite TV service. That's because pulling in online shows may be what people think they must have next. DVDs from Netflix are ordinary. Having a virtual video store in your living room is not. This is what you get with VUDU. VUDU's internet-ready setup is an on demand movie service that requires no monthly subscription or contract. All you need is an internet-ready TV, a fast connection, and about $150 for the VUDU box. Available since 2007, VUDU sales haven't been impressive, so last year the company stopped pushing the hardware and started making deals with manufacturers such as Samsung, Sanyo, and Sharp to build its features directly into televisions. Last month, Wal-Mart bought VUDU.

3D technology is going to have a colossal impact; I'm just not sure when that will happen. It seems to be something about which everyone is excited, but I think there are some issues that need to be resolved before consumers will sign up for another expensive television and the special glasses needed to watch it. The main problems I see are 1. there are no standards as yet for formatting (that I'm aware of) and consequently, 2. content will be limited. I wouldn't be too happy if I spent a lot of money on a new TV and then found out that, say, the show my child wanted to watch was not produced in 3D. I think there will continue to be a huge market for 3D movies that people can enjoy in an IMAX theater. Further development of this technology and its applications, especially for video games, will likely enthrall techies and trekkies for years.





VUDU could end up being the new technology that more people try at home. The viewer seems to have plenty of content choices with VUDU, along with absolute control over when to view the selected content. There is a pleasurable sense of satisfaction associated with being able to instantly fulfill a movie wish. The insipid people of Wal-Mart are involved, so proliferation is almost a given.

On the other hand, I am not one who easily embraces the newest technologies. I'm rather adverse to being on the receiving end of marketing, to rushing towards the latest phantasmagoria. It's probably not surprising then, that my favorite media gadget, and one I'm still working on comprehending, is the remote control which remains eminently handy for turning the television off.